This is a translation of the Japanese original. The Japanese version is authoritative; figures follow Japanese tax law.
The claim that "fire insurance will rise by a record 10–15% in October 2026" cannot be confirmed in primary sources. The latest filing by the General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (損害保険料率算出機構), which sets the benchmark for premiums, was a nationwide average of +13.0% in June 2023, and insurers passed it on in October 2024[GIROJ, Fire and Earthquake Insurance Overview FY2025 (in Japanese)]. What happens in October 2026 is a set of revisions each insurer makes on its own judgement. Sompo Japan, for example, was reported to raise personal fire insurance by about 3% on average[Fukushima Minpo, 28 May 2026 (in Japanese)].
Your own premium changes from your next renewal date (the policy start date). If you are partway through a five-year policy, you keep today's premium until it expires. Start by checking the expiry date and insurer on your policy certificate, then compare the renewal notice with this year's amount.
The short answer: October 2026 is not an industry-wide rise but individual insurers' revisions
| What is being shared | What primary sources confirm |
|---|---|
| A record rise in October 2026 | The "record" was the +13.0% filed in June 2023 (passed on by insurers from October 2024). There is no fire insurance filing in 2026 |
| Premiums will rise 10–15% | Sompo Japan: about 3% on average for personal policies (reported). Rates and timing differ by insurer |
| Prefecture-by-prefecture rises from +6.3% | The +6.3% for wooden houses in Tokyo is an example from the 2023 filing |
| Everyone pays more from October | Applies to new and renewed policies from October. Long-term policies stay the same until expiry |
| Earthquake insurance will rise too | The latest earthquake insurance rate change took effect in October 2022. No filing in 2026 |
*Based on GIROJ publications (checked 29 September 2026). Insurer revisions are from press reports and insurer notices.
This does not mean there is no rise at all. But the size of the rise varies widely by insurer and policy terms, so it is safer to decide after seeing your own renewal notice.
The "record" comes from the +13.0% of June 2023, and that is still GIROJ's latest filing
GIROJ calculates a benchmark for the part of the premium used to pay claims (the reference pure rate, 参考純率). It reviews the rate every year and files with the Commissioner of the Financial Services Agency only when a change is needed. The last four revisions are shown below[GIROJ, Fire insurance reference pure rates (in Japanese)].
GIROJ's annual report published in April 2026 also says its most recent fire insurance filing was "in June 2023"[same, Overview FY2025, p.21 (in Japanese)]. In 2026 GIROJ filed only reference pure rates for motor and personal accident insurance[same, News releases (in Japanese)].
- After the 2023 filing, the four largest insurers raised premiums by around 10% in October 2024[Nikkei, May 2024 (in Japanese)]
- Some "prefecture-by-prefecture rates" online simply reuse the examples from the 2023 filing (such as +6.3% for wooden houses in Tokyo)
The "record" describes a revision from two years ago. The most natural reading is that it was relabelled under an "October 2026" headline and spread from there.
Premiums are set in three steps: reference pure rate, insurer's rate, your premium
GIROJ's reference pure rate does not become your premium as it is. Each insurer decides whether to use it, adjust it or not use it, and also decides when to start selling at the new rate[GIROJ, release of 28 June 2023, p.5 (in Japanese)].
GIROJ itself states that its revision rates differ from the revision rates of insurers' products. The national average of +13.0% is also an average across every prefecture, structure, building age and type of cover.
What rises in October 2026 are insurers' own revisions: Sompo Japan about 3% for personal policies
Even without a GIROJ filing, insurers can revise their rates based on their own claims experience. The October 2026 rises are revisions of this kind.
| Insurer | October 2026 change | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sompo Japan | Personal policies up about 3% on average, corporate about 1.2%. First rise in two years since October 2024 | Press reports (May 2026) |
| Sony Assurance | Product revision for policies starting on or after 1 October 2026 | Insurer notice |
| Other insurers | Whether and how much they revise differs | Check renewal notices and insurer announcements |
Sompo Japan's reason was reported as higher repair costs for homes due to inflation[Nikkei, May 2026 (in Japanese)]. According to reports, detached houses could rise by up to about 10%, while condominiums could fall by up to about 30%. Within one insurer, the "3% average" moves in opposite directions depending on the building.
- Claims paid for Typhoon Jebi (No. 21) in 2018 totalled ¥1.0678 trillion (General Insurance Association of Japan)
- In FY2024, the April hailstorm and Typhoon No. 10 cost ¥99.0 billion in total (as of end-March 2025)
The background is real, but which insurer raises what and when can only be known from each insurer's announcement. Preparing for typhoon season is covered in financial disaster preparation before a typhoon.
When does your own policy go up? It depends on your next renewal (start) date
New rates apply to new and renewed policies starting on or after the revision date. Reports also say Sompo Japan's new rates apply to people who take out or renew a policy from October 2026[Fukushima Minpo, 28 May 2026 (in Japanese)].
No change for now
- Partway through a five-year policy expiring in 2027 or later
- Renewed in September (start date in September or earlier)
- Your insurer does not revise in October 2026
May rise at next renewal
- Policy expires or renews in October 2026 or later
- You renew a one-year policy every year
- Detached house (reports say larger rises)
With a long-term policy paid in a lump sum, the premium is not normally replaced during the term. For long-term policies paid yearly or monthly, check the policy terms.
- At 3% on average: ¥40,000 → ¥41,200 (+¥1,200 a year)
- At the widely shared 15%: ¥46,000 (+¥6,000 a year)
Over five years, the gap between 3% and 15% is ¥24,000. The real amount varies with the building and area, so check your renewal notice.
How much it rises varies several times over by structure, area, flood grade and building age
Fire insurance premiums differ several times over for the same sum insured, so the national average revision rate says little about your policy[GIROJ, Overview FY2025, pp.16–17 (in Japanese)].
| Factor | Gap in reference pure rates |
|---|---|
| Building structure (condominium, steel, wood) | 2.84–5.92 times between the highest and lowest structure |
| Location (municipality) | 2.31–3.83 times between the highest and lowest area |
| Flood grade (grades 1–5) | About 1.2 times across all cover (introduced in the 2023 filing) |
| Building age | Average discount of 35% under 5 years old, 27% for 5 to under 10 years |
The examples in the 2023 filing already showed a wide spread[same, release of 28 June 2023, p.4 (in Japanese)]. They assume a building of ¥20 million, contents of ¥10 million and a building at least 10 years old.
- Wooden house in Tokyo: +6.3% on average, −1.3% to +19.0% by flood grade
- Condominium in Tokyo: +10.4% on average, +4.3% to +20.2% by flood grade
- Condominium in Miyazaki: +23.9% on average
You can look up the flood grade for your municipality with GIROJ's flood grade search (in Japanese).
What to do before renewal: review the term, flood cover, deductible and contents
Reviewing what your policy covers changes the premium. Before cutting anything, first ask whether you would be in trouble without that cover.
- Check the expiry date and insurer: confirm the start date, expiry date and payment method on the policy certificate. Many people took out cover through their bank at the same time as a home loan
- Decide the term: the current maximum is 5 years (cut from 10 years by the 2021 filing). A longer term set before a revision fixes the rate for that period
- Judge the need for flood cover with a hazard map: the national take-up of flood cover was 61.8% in FY2024 and keeps falling. The answer differs for an upper-floor flat on high ground and a house by a river
- Review the deductible (your own share): paying small losses yourself lowers the premium. Keep it within what your savings can cover
- Match the contents sum insured to reality: after a change in household size it may be set too high
The take-up rate is published by GIROJ[GIROJ, 28 November 2025 (in Japanese)]. GIROJ has also voiced concern about people dropping flood cover to save money. Drop it only if a map confirms that flooding is unlikely.
What to do today
- Take out your policy certificate and note three things: expiry date, insurer, and whether flood cover is included.
- Check your home's flood risk and grade with your local hazard map and GIROJ's flood grade search.
- If expiry is near, get a renewal quote from your current insurer first and compare it with this year.
Who this does not suit and cautions: gaps in cover, older buildings, earthquake insurance, tax deductions
Switching or cutting cover to avoid a rise has pitfalls that can cost more than the premium.
- Gaps in cover: unless the new policy starts on the day the old one expires, you are uninsured even for a day. Do not cancel first
- Older buildings: some insurers attach conditions on term or acceptance for older buildings. You may not get the same cover elsewhere
- Earthquake insurance is the same everywhere: every insurer uses GIROJ's standard rate. Switching to cut earthquake premiums has no effect
- Paying a long term up front: you need five years' premium at once. Do not dip into your emergency fund for it
Earthquake insurance is reinsured by the government; cover is 30–50% of the fire insurance sum, up to ¥50 million for the building and ¥10 million for contents[Ministry of Finance, Earthquake insurance (in Japanese)]. The latest rate change took effect in October 2022, and there is no filing in 2026[GIROJ, Earthquake insurance standard rates (in Japanese)].
On the tax side, fire insurance premiums themselves are not an income deduction. Only the earthquake part qualifies, as the earthquake insurance premium deduction (地震保険料控除), claimed through year-end adjustment or a tax return[National Tax Agency, No.1145 (in Japanese)].
- Income tax deduction: ¥20,000 (full amount up to ¥50,000) → about ¥2,000 less tax
- Resident tax deduction: ¥10,000 (half of the amount paid, capped at ¥25,000) → about ¥1,000 less tax[Chuo City (in Japanese)]
- Total tax saving of about ¥3,000 a year. The fire insurance part of the premium is not counted
How to fill in the deduction certificate is covered in the tax effect of life and earthquake insurance deductions. Tax relief when a disaster actually causes damage is in choosing between the casualty loss deduction and the disaster relief act. Insurance payouts are subtracted from the loss for the casualty loss deduction (雑損控除), so think of insurance and tax together.
Frequently asked questions
Can I avoid the rise by renewing in September?
If the start date is before the revision date, that policy term uses the old rate. But if you cancel before expiry and take out a new policy, watch the refund calculation and any gap in cover. Ask your insurer or agent for a quote on whether renewing early is possible and what it saves.
When will GIROJ next review fire insurance rates?
GIROJ reviews rates every year and files only when needed. As of the end of September 2026, there has been no filing since June 2023. Any filing will be announced in GIROJ's news releases.
Summary
- The claim of "a record 10-15% fire insurance hike in October 2026" cannot be confirmed from primary sources.
- The "record high" refers to the nationwide average increase of +13.0% filed in June 2023, which was already reflected in each insurer's October 2024 revisions.
- The October 2026 changes are each company's own independent revision. Sompo Japan's average increase for individual policies has been reported at about 3%.
- New rates apply from your next renewal (start) date. If you are mid-way through a five-year contract, your premium stays the same until maturity.
- Check your insurance policy for the maturity date, insurer, and whether flood damage coverage is included, and compare the renewal notice amount with this year's.
References (sources)
- GIROJ, Fire insurance reference pure rates (in Japanese) — filing history
- GIROJ, Revision of fire insurance reference pure rates (28 June 2023, in Japanese)
- GIROJ, Revision of fire insurance reference pure rates (16 June 2021, in Japanese) — +10.9%, maximum 5 years
- GIROJ, Fire and Earthquake Insurance Overview FY2025 (in Japanese)
- GIROJ, News releases (in Japanese)
- GIROJ, Flood cover take-up rate for fire insurance, FY2024 (in Japanese)
- GIROJ, Earthquake insurance standard rates (in Japanese)
- Financial Services Agency, Expert panel on flood rates in fire insurance (in Japanese)
- Ministry of Finance, Outline of the earthquake insurance system (in Japanese)
- National Tax Agency, Tax Answer No.1145 Earthquake insurance premium deduction (in Japanese)
- Chuo City, Life and earthquake insurance deductions (in Japanese) — resident tax deduction
- Press and insurer notices: Nikkei (May 2026) / Fukushima Minpo (28 May 2026) / Nikkei (May 2024) / Sony Assurance (October 2026 product revision) (all in Japanese)
*This article is general information and does not recommend any insurer or product. Check individual premiums and cover with your insurer or agent, and tax deductions with the tax office or a tax accountant.
