The subsidy that holds Japan's gasoline price at around ¥170 per litre will be scaled back in steps from December. The reference price used to set the subsidy rises to ¥172 on 3 December, ¥174 on 10 December and ¥175 on 17 December. At a press conference on 29 October, Prime Minister Takaichi said the government would "basically raise the reference price by ¥5 every month towards early spring", without giving an end date for the subsidy.[Prime Minister's Office, 29 October 2026]
A household that buys 50 litres a month pays ¥250 more a month after December's ¥5 rise. If the price keeps rising by ¥5 a month until March, the increase reaches ¥1,000 a month. Diesel, kerosene and heavy oil receive the same subsidy per litre as gasoline, so they are expected to rise by the same amount.
The December schedule: from ¥170 to ¥175 over three weeks
The government uses the subsidy to keep the national average pump price from going above a "reference price". In December it raises this reference price in three small steps to avoid a sudden jump.[Nikkei, 30 October 2026]
| From | Reference price (per litre) | Change from ¥170 |
|---|---|---|
| Until November | about ¥170 | — |
| Thu 3 December | about ¥172 | +¥2 |
| Thu 10 December | about ¥174 | +¥4 |
| Thu 17 December | about ¥175 | +¥5 |
| January 2027 onwards | Not decided (¥5 a month as a basis) | — |
The subsidy is currently at a record level. From 29 October to 4 November it was ¥52.4 per litre; without it the pump price would have been ¥212.9 (the national average on 26 October was ¥170.1).[Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: national average gasoline price]
What surprised us most was that the subsidy covers nearly a quarter of the unsubsidised price. The Prime Minister explained that tax money is being spent "at a pace of more than ¥10 billion a day" to hold prices down. Spending since the scheme began in 2022 totals about ¥9.6 trillion.
Household cost: ¥250 a month for 50 litres in December, ¥1,000 by March if it continues
This estimate assumes the national average pump price rises by the same amount as the reference price.
| Monthly fuel | +¥5 (from 17 Dec) | +¥10 (Jan, assumed) | +¥15 (Feb, assumed) | +¥20 (Mar, assumed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 litres | ¥150 | ¥300 | ¥450 | ¥600 |
| 50 litres | ¥250 | ¥500 | ¥750 | ¥1,000 |
| 80 litres | ¥400 | ¥800 | ¥1,200 | ¥1,600 |
| One 18-litre can of kerosene | ¥90 | ¥180 | ¥270 | ¥360 |
Calculated as the difference from ¥170 × volume. The reference price is a guide for the national average; pump prices vary by region. If crude oil prices fall, pump prices may not rise this much even as the subsidy shrinks.
Kerosene is expected to rise by the same amount because the current scheme, which began in March, provides "the same subsidy as gasoline for diesel, heavy oil and kerosene".[Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: emergency measures] The Prime Minister also said the government would support supply, including funding for expensive imported kerosene, so that distribution does not get blocked. Local "welfare kerosene" schemes are summarised in Kerosene subsidies, winter 2026.
The electricity and gas subsidy, by contrast, restarts with December usage. The government says it will save a standard household about ¥7,000 over the three months from December to February.
Filling up before 3 December saves ¥100 on 50 litres
The rise on 3 December is ¥2, so filling 50 litres beforehand saves only ¥100. Because the reference price rises by ¥2, ¥2 and ¥1 a week, the gap is not worth driving to a distant station. The day the price board changes also varies by station.
The gap grows only if prices keep rising by ¥5 a month from January. If the price reaches ¥190 in March and stays there, 50 litres a month costs ¥12,000 more a year. Comparing prices at nearby stations matters more than rushing to fill up.
How long will it last? Funding covers payments until January 2027
- On 30 October the government added ¥1.1459 trillion from reserve funds. Reports say this should keep the scheme running until the January 2027 payments.[Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: history of fuel price support]
- If the subsidy stays at its current level, about ¥400 billion is needed every month.[TV Asahi (ANN), 30 October 2026]
- Asked how high the reference price will go and when the subsidy will end, the Prime Minister said he "will not speak with preconceptions".
Why the subsidy continues even after the provisional gasoline tax rate was abolished, and the tax breakdown per litre, are covered in What the gasoline subsidy is made of.
Summary
- The gasoline reference price rises to ¥172 on 3 December, ¥174 on 10 December and ¥175 on 17 December
- From January the basis is "¥5 a month", and no end date has been set
- The current subsidy is ¥52.4 per litre; without it the price would be ¥212.9
- For 50 litres a month, costs rise by ¥250 a month in December and by ¥1,000 a month if ¥5 rises continue to March
- Diesel, kerosene and heavy oil get the same subsidy as gasoline, so they are expected to rise by the same amount
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References (sources)
- Prime Minister's Office: Press conference on the future of the emergency fuel price measures (29 October 2026, in Japanese)
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: Emergency measures in response to the Middle East situation, special site (subsidy rates, in Japanese)
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: Trend of the national average gasoline price (in Japanese)
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: Emergency measures in response to the situation in Iran (11 March 2026, in Japanese)
- Agency for Natural Resources and Energy: History of fuel price support measures (updated 3 November 2026, in Japanese)
- Nikkei: Gasoline subsidy rises ¥5 over three weeks in December; reserve funds secured until January (30 October 2026, in Japanese)
- TV Asahi (ANN): Gasoline price to be "about ¥172" on 3 December, rising by ¥2 and ¥1 a week (30 October 2026, in Japanese)
This article is general information based on official materials and reporting as of 4 November 2026. The December schedule comes from reports of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's announcement, and figures from January onwards are assumptions. Subsidy rates change every week; check the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy's special site for the latest figures.